Skailark launches Airline Economics v9.0
| We have just updated to v9.0. Please find below a summary of the most important product enhancements: Model and data updates 1.1 Passenger & revenue model upgrade 1.2 Airlines added across Europe, Asia and Africa 1.3 Overhead model refined 1.4 Updated Q4 financials and added Q1 forecasts Dashboard updates 2.1 Download extension expanded 2.2 Cost by cabin dashboard provides detail re onboard costs by class Refinements & data corrections Current developments |
| All our subscribers have received complimentary access to the updated data as of today. We welcome any feedback, both on insights as well as usability. Note: To access data from any previous versions, please access our archive here. Model and data updates 1.1 Passenger & revenue model upgrade This quarter, we’ve pushed our statistical revenue model further than ever before. The product team has worked intensively to enhance model intelligence and integrate various new data sources. Model intelligence: -Added more O&Ds through adjusted O&D creation approach. – Included trade volume data as a dynamic demand driver, especially relevant in light of recent global shifts. – Recalibrated hotel room availability as a more realistic proxy for true passenger demand. – Modeled increased demand effects in airports with a significant ULCC presence, capturing the stimulative impact of low-cost carriers. New data sources: – O&D volumes: Enriched with newly available actuals from the past year across key markets in Europe and South America. These additions provide stronger regional granularity and bring our demand estimation closer to reality. – Segment data: Integrated worldwide segment data to support our load factor calculations. – Yield data: Incorporated actual booked yield data from South American countries to strengthen yield estimates. 1.2 Airlines added across Europe, Asia and Africa We are pleased to announce the addition of more carriers across Europe, Asia and Africa. These include: – AirSerbia – Air Japan (ANA Group) – Ethiopian Airlines – Kenya Airways 1.3 Overhead model refined Overhead cost estimation has been improved for non-reporting airlines. The new model accounts for airline-specific stage length and aircraft type, enabling more realistic per-carrier overhead cost allocation. 1.4 Updated Q4 financials and added Q1 forecasts As you are already acquainted with by now, we have validated our Q4’24 forecasts with reported actual financials (where available). Furthermore, we have added Q1’25 supply data including our latest outside-in forecasts. Dashboard updates 2.1 Download extension expanded We’ve expanded the scope of our download extension to give you deeper access. You now have more variables in the download extension, including operational statistics (OTP, turn times, etc.) and granular cost breakdowns across MRO (D-check interval, D-check outside HQ, etc.) and crew (Pilot/FA utilization/salary etc.). 2.2 Cost by cabin dashboard provides detail re onboard costs by class We’ve unlocked a new layer of precision in onboard cost modeling. Onboard costs are now broken down by cabin class: Economy, Premium Economy, Business, and First. These costs are calculated based on actual service levels and cabin class-specific space allocation, giving you a more accurate lens on route-level profitability and product-level benchmarking.  Refinements & data corrections Based on customer input as well as internal research, we have improved the following aspects of our digital twins: – Improved fleet utilization calculations to remove outliers and ensure more accurate values across airlines and aircraft types. – Financials for selected carriers updated such as GOL Airlines, Iceland Air, Lufthansa Group, Air Baltic, El Al & ANA Group. – Aircraft performance differentiation: The A321XLR entered commercial service in November 2024. One of its key characteristics is a higher MTOW compared to its predecessor, resulting in increased fuel consumption. This has now been incorporated into our model to more accurately reflect aircraft-level performance. Current developments We’d like to share a few ongoing model updates currently in progress. – Fuel model: We are preparing for the release of a new fuel model next quarter. This will leverage actual flight distance per tail, sourced from our satellite provider, rather than great circle distance. This change will significantly improve accuracy in fuel cost modeling. Additionally, the new routing data will allow us to better estimate ATC costs by identifying the specific countries an aircraft flies over, further improving total route-level cost. – Ground handeling model: In the next quarter, we’re replacing the current machine-learning model with a new analytical, bottom-up approach. This change brings greater granularity and accuracy, tailored to each flight and carrier. More details to follow in the next update. |